Epidemiologically inspired approaches to land-use policy evaluation: The influence of the Rural Environmental Registry (CAR) on deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon

Autores: Marcelo A. Costa , Raoni Rajão, Marcelo C.C. Stabile, Andrea A. Azevedo, Juliano Correa

Resumo: Environmental policy evaluation is crucial to determining if policy objectives were achieved. In most cases, some of the outcomes can be measured but a proper statistical analysis is difficult to achieve since the data may not represent a random sample (i.e., the data is biased), are not representative of the population or cannot be compared to a control group. This work adapts quasi-experimental statistical methods widely used in epidemiological studies that could be applied to land use policy evaluation in situations of relatively poor data. In order to test and develop this set of methods, we evaluated the effect of a land-use policy known as the rural environmental registry (CAR) on the reduction of deforestation rates in the Brazilian Amazon rainforest…. leia mais